A bigger, better-sized 2026 crop is set to reverse last year's export slide, leaving more Japanese peaches and nectarines for buyers in Hong Kong and Taiwan.
FAS/Tokyo is the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service post in Japan. It forecasts the country's peach and nectarine exports at 2,500 metric tons for marketing year 2026/27, up 34% from 1,861 MT the prior year.
Key Facts
- Up 34% from last year, Japan's peach and nectarine exports are forecast to reach 2,500 MT in MY2026/27.
- Production is expected to recover 9.3% to 110,000 MT as fruit size rebounds from 2025's heat and drought.
- Hong Kong and Taiwan remain Japan's top two export markets for peaches and nectarines.
The forecast comes from the same FAS/Tokyo Stone Fruit Annual report, published August 19. It follows a smaller MY2025/26 harvest.
Hot, dry weather during fruit enlargement cut the national yield to 11 MT per hectare. FAS/Tokyo splits the MY2026/27 forecast into 103,000 MT of commercial production and 7,000 MT of non-commercial.
Bigger Fruit Drives the Production Recovery
Yamanashi and Fukushima together account for 55% of Japan's peach and nectarine production. Field monitoring in both prefectures points to a size recovery.
Yamanashi's 2026 development is running well ahead of last year's pace.
Fukushima's monitoring is more cautious. The prefecture's extension office reported the akatsuki variety measuring bigger than usual in one monitored orchard as of mid-July.
The report notes the comparison orchard changed year to year, so the finding is directional rather than a confirmed national trend.
FAS/Tokyo forecasts MY2026/27 production at 110,000 MT, up 9.3% from 100,600 MT. FAS/Tokyo's math assumes fruit weight is near typical levels this year, even as the harvested area keeps shrinking. Area is forecast at 9,030 hectares, down about 1% from 9,120 ha.
Exports Forecast to Rebound 34% to Hong Kong and Taiwan
FAS/Tokyo forecasts MY2026/27 peach and nectarine exports at 2,500 MT, up 34% from 1,861 MT the prior year. The gain follows more marketable volume from the larger crop.
Hong Kong and Taiwan have long been the top destinations for Japanese peaches. In MY2025/26, Hong Kong took 1,346 MT and Taiwan another 358 MT. Together, the two markets accounted for the bulk of Japan's 1,861 MT in total shipments.
Fresh U.S. peaches still have no general access to the Japanese market.
Phytosanitary restrictions keep the door closed, so nearly all of Japan's roughly 300 MT in stone fruit imports are U.S. nectarines instead. Those nectarines enter tariff-free, under the same U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement that covers cherries.
Consumption Set to Climb 8.9% as Supply Recovers
FAS/Tokyo forecasts MY2026/27 domestic consumption at 107,800 MT. That's up 8.9% from 99,031 MT the prior year, as the larger crop restores retail availability.
About 90% of Japan's peaches and nectarines are eaten fresh.
White-fleshed peaches dominate the domestic market, while yellow varieties remain a smaller, later-season niche.
The recovery is supply-led. High retail prices and an aging customer base still cap how much demand can grow, the report says. FAS/Tokyo doesn't expect the increase to reverse Japan's longer decline in fruit consumption per person.
