Australian avocado exports reached a record high of approximately 18,400 metric tonnes in the 2025 calendar year. Rabobank's RaboResearch division forecasts domestic supply will climb to a record 170,000 tonnes in the coming seasons, based on industry estimates.
The forecast appears in the bank's Global Avocado Update 2026 report, released July 23.
Key Facts
- Australian avocado exports hit a record high of about 18,400 tonnes in 2025.
- Down 15% in 2024/25, Australian production is now forecast to hit 170,000 tonnes.
- Australian avocado export prices held between AUD 5.20 and 5.24 per kilogram from 2024 into early 2026.
The 2024/25 decline was cyclical, not structural. Avocado trees follow an "alternative bearing" pattern, producing a heavier crop every second year. Rabobank attributes last season's dip to that swing, not any underlying weakness in the sector.
"Australia's avocado sector has undergone structural expansion in recent years," RaboResearch senior analyst Michael Harvey said in the report.
Increased plantings and newer orchards reaching maturity are driving that expansion. Growing conditions for the start of the 2026 season have been favourable in the country's two largest producing regions.
Asia Remains Australia's Core Avocado Export Market
Asia continues to be the largest destination for Australian avocado exports, led by established markets in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Malaysia. Demand is also growing across other South-East Asian markets and the Middle East, per the report.
Export prices for Australian avocados held between AUD 5.20 and AUD 5.24 per kilogram, a narrow band that has stayed level since 2024. New Zealand supplied 6,000 metric tonnes of avocados to Australia in 2025 to cover a seasonal gap. But the report says New Zealand imports into Australia are declining as local supply increases.
Queensland and Western Australia Drive the Rebound
Queensland remains the country's largest avocado-producing state, accounting for half of national output.
Western Australia ranks second.
Those are also the two regions flagged as having the most favourable start to the 2026 season, a signal that the production side of the rebound is already underway.
El Niño Adds Uncertainty to 2026/27 Global Supply
Globally, avocado exports have grown from 0.73 million metric tonnes in 2010/11 to more than 3.3 million tonnes in 2025/26. Mexico and Peru lead that growth, with Kenya, Spain, Colombia, and South Africa adding further volume.
Global avocado exports have grown from 0.73 million metric tonnes in 2010/11 to more than 3.3 million tonnes in 2025/26, a more than fourfold increase in a decade and a half. Mexico and Peru remain the two largest contributors to that growth, with Kenya, Spain, Colombia, and South Africa adding further volume. That steady climb is why Rabobank expects continued global supply growth even as El Niño introduces yield variability heading into the 2026/27 season.
Rabobank expects global export volumes to keep climbing into the 2026/27 season. But the developing El Niño weather pattern is set to unevenly distribute risk across growing regions, rather than trigger a broad shortfall.
Demand is following a similar split. Mexico and Chile are nearing per-capita saturation, at roughly 14 kilograms and nine kilograms a year respectively.
EU per-capita consumption, by contrast, reached 2.24 kilograms in 2025 and continues climbing, alongside rapid growth in Italy, Germany, and Turkey.
