Australia overtook the United States as China's dominant almond supplier in 2025, per a USDA Foreign Agricultural Service report out of Shanghai.
Key Facts
- Australia's 2025 China almond sales reached $543 million, roughly 12 times the US total of $42.8 million.
- US in-shell shipments to China fell 86%, from 44,825 metric tons in 2023 to 6,223 in 2025.
- Australian almond imports fell 26% in early 2026.
The shift reversed a supplier relationship that held as recently as 2023, when the US still led China's almond trade in both major import categories.
By 2025, Australia had built a lead in each measure the report tracks: shipment volume, dollar value, and market share.
How Zero Tariffs Turned Australia Into China's Top Almond Source
Combined in-shell and shelled almond exports from Australia to China reached $543.0 million in 2025. The Australian total is more than 12 times the US figure of $42.8 million in the same categories.
The figures come from Trade Data Monitor customs data, cited in the USDA report.
Australia's combined almond export value to China rose from $172.6 million in 2023 to $543.0 million in 2025, passing the US in the same span. The US total fell from $251.1 million to $42.8 million over the same three years.
Australia supplied nearly 90% of China's in-shell import volume by 2025. It marks a sharp reversal from 2023, when the US still led the category by volume.
The same pattern played out in shelled almonds. US shelled shipments fell from 24,893 metric tons in 2023 to 3,017 metric tons in 2025, an 88% drop. Australia's shelled shipments rose from 19,799 metric tons to 41,612 metric tons over the same period.
The reversal comes down to trade terms, not product quality.
Australian almonds enter China duty-free under the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement. Australia's counter-seasonal harvest and shorter shipping routes add flexibility that US exporters do not have.
Tariffs and Soft Demand Cool China's Almond Import Growth
The decline continued into 2026.
US almond shipments to China and Hong Kong totaled 14,675 metric tons from August 2025 through June 2026, per the Almond Board of California. The total marks a 35% drop from the same 11-month period a year earlier.
Tariffs, logistics disruptions, and weak domestic demand weakened imports from all major suppliers over that stretch, the report states. The slowdown deepened in early 2026.
Total imports across all supplying countries fell 50% by volume in the first four months of the year. Australian volume alone dropped 26%, even as Australian unit prices rose 28%.
China's own almond production covers a small share of demand and is not filling the gap. Domestic shelled almond output for the 2025/26 marketing year is estimated at about 22,000 metric tons.
More than 90% of that comes from Xinjiang's Shache County, where industry sources say cold weather and sandstorms during flowering may trim this year's harvest.
Why Premium Snacking Keeps Almonds Growing in China
Underlying demand has not disappeared alongside the drop in shipment volume. Snacks account for 55% to 60% of China's almond consumption, the largest single use case in the report.
Food processing follows at 15% to 20%, and almond milk at 10% to 15%.
Per capita nut consumption in China is at just 2.9 to 3.2 kilograms a year, depending on the data source. It's well below levels in more mature snacking markets.
Industry forecasts cited in the report put China's tree nut market growth at 4.6% to 6.6% annually over the next decade.
Almonds are also gaining ground beyond snacking. The report cites three expanding formats:
- Almond milk
- Protein bars
- Bakery ingredients
The growth is driven in part by lactose intolerance, which affects an estimated 85% to 90% of Chinese adults.
