Higher imports and the record carry-in stocks built up last season will cushion the decline, but a smaller exportable surplus, led by France, means the EU leans harder on Ukraine, the US, Brazil, and Canada for corn.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service cut its forecast for European Union grain production in the 2026/27 marketing year to 266 million metric tons.
The new figure is an 8% drop from the record 289.2 MMT harvested in 2025/26. The agency's Grain and Feed Quarterly report is dated July 30. It pointed to a string of heatwaves since May that cut yields in France, Hungary, Poland, and Germany, the bloc's largest producers.
Key Facts
- EU grain production is forecast at 266 MMT in 2026/27.
- Wheat output is set to fall 8% to 133.8 MMT.
- Imports are forecast to rise 7% to 28.4 MMT while exports fall 6.5% to 40.3 MMT.
FAS attributed the decline to two forces working together. Rising fertilizer and fuel costs pushed EU farmers toward lower-input crops before planting even began.
Area harvested fell 1.6% to 48.6 million hectares, from 49.4 million a year earlier. Weather did the rest once the crop was in the ground.
EU grain production swung from a record 289.2 MMT last season to a forecast 266.3 MMT this season, a reversal that tracks almost entirely with the weather described below rather than any single country's crop plan.
Heatwaves Hit Yields Hardest in France and Hungary
France, the EU's largest grain producer, took the heaviest hit.
A string of heatwaves brought critically dry soils that curbed winter grain yields and cut plantings of spring crops like corn and sorghum. The country's wheat harvest arrived about three weeks early.
Some fields yielded as little as 3 MT per hectare, against a regional average of 6 to 7. FAS forecasts the average French wheat yield below 7 MT per hectare, down from 7.4 MT last season. USDA's July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report went further on corn.
It projected France's crop at its lowest level in more than three decades, if the forecast holds.
Hungary fared just as badly. The country entered the season already weakened by consecutive drought years, with precipitation 150 to 200 mm below optimal. A heatwave after June 20 accelerated ripening and left corn biomass well below average.
Poland and Germany saw damage too, though less severe. In Germany, a mid-June heatwave reaching 36 to 42°C pushed up the barley harvest and hit both wheat and rye hard during the grain-filling stage. In Poland, frost, drought, and a separate June heatwave shortened the grain-filling window.
EU Imports Rise as Exportable Supply Shrinks
The production shortfall reshapes EU trade in both directions. FAS raised its forecast for EU grain imports to 28.4 MMT in MY 2026/27, up 7% from 26.5 MMT the prior season.
Corn imports from Ukraine, the United States, Brazil, and Canada will be critical to cover the gap left by France's smaller crop. Exports are moving the opposite way. FAS cut its export forecast to 40.3 MMT, down 6.5% from 43.1 MMT.
France's reduced surplus and rising competition from Black Sea origins are squeezing the country's shipments. Romania and Bulgaria's improved harvests only partly offset the French decline.
World Grain first reported the forecast Monday. Ending stocks, which hit a record 37.5 MMT last season, are projected to fall 21% to 29.6 MMT this year.
Romania and Bulgaria Are the Exception This Season
Romania and Bulgaria are the season's bright spot. Wet weather delayed Bulgaria's fall planting. Spring conditions turned excellent instead, with no heat stress and well-distributed rainfall lifting biomass and grain formation. Bulgarian wheat yields are now tracking above last season's levels.
Romania's wheat crop is expected to roughly match last year's, with above-average yields in the south and lower ones in the drier west. Both countries also expect stronger corn harvests, helped by moderate temperatures and adequate rain that let plants advance through pollination without the stress seen west and north.
