Frost and hail losses are forecast to shrink Mexico's own peach crop by 5% this year, widening the opening U.S. growers already hold under a zero-tariff trade deal.
Mexico's peach imports are forecast to rise 7% to 38,000 MT in 2026, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) reported on August 20.
The forecast comes as Mexico's own peach crop is expected to fall 5% to 255,000 MT, driven largely by frost and hail damage in top growing states.
Key Facts
- Down 5% from 2025, Mexico's 2026 peach crop is forecast at 255,000 MT.
- US suppliers accounted for 65% of Mexico's peach import volume in 2025.
- Zacatecas, Michoacán, and Chihuahua together produce 61% of Mexico's peach crop.
FAS's Guadalajara post prepared the report. The post covers Mexico's fresh produce sector. Weather losses this year cut into a peach crop that had grown for three straight years, pushing buyers toward imported fruit to fill the gap.
Weather Losses Cut Mexico's Peach Production
Early-year frosts and late-spring hailstorms damaged orchards across central Mexico's growing states, according to the report.
Producers in the region have faced two years of an atypical pattern. Dry-season rains give way to sudden freezes that damage water-logged floral buds and open the door to pests and fungal disease.
Open-air orchards have no shielding from the weather, so they absorb the full impact.
Weather-driven losses have also hit peach growers elsewhere in North America this year. California's 2025/26 crop is forecast down 10% amid warmer and earlier-maturing conditions, FreshFruitPortal reported in August.
Zacatecas, Michoacán, and Chihuahua account for 61% of Mexico's peach production.
Zacatecas alone produces 32% of the national total, per the report. Mexico's peach production had risen each year since 2022, reaching 268,069 MT in 2025 before this year's decline.
Growers typically harvest 8.2 to 8.7 MT per hectare.
US Share of Mexico's Peach Imports
The United States controlled 65% of Mexico's peach import volume in 2025, FAS reported. Chile supplied most of the remainder. Peaches from both countries enter Mexico tariff-free under existing free trade agreements.
Mexico's Peach Harvest and Consumption Outlook
Mexico's peach harvest runs heaviest from July through September. The three months account for roughly 70% of the annual crop, FAS reported.
Domestic consumption is forecast to fall 3% to 292,950 MT in 2026, even as reduced supply pushes buyers toward pricier imported fruit.
Mexico's peach exports are forecast to fall further to 50 MT in 2026, remaining minimal and limited mostly to Belize, Costa Rica, and El Salvador.
