Yamagata's rebound lands the same year a smaller U.S. sweet cherry crop tightens the supply of imports Japan still leans on.
FAS/Tokyo is the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service post in Japan. It forecasts the country's fresh cherry production at 14,000 metric tons for marketing year 2026/27, up 25% from 11,200 MT the prior year.
Key Facts
- Up 25% from last year, Japan's cherry crop is forecast to reach 14,000 MT in MY2026/27.
- Cherry imports are expected to fall 15.6% to 4,200 MT as domestic supply recovers.
- Yamagata Prefecture drives the rebound, producing about 74% of Japan's national cherry crop.
The forecast comes from FAS/Tokyo's Stone Fruit Annual report, published August 19. It marks a meaningful recovery from two consecutive down seasons.
Even so, MY2026/27 production would remain about 19% below the 17,300 MT Japan produced in MY2023/24. FAS/Tokyo splits the forecast into 12,200 MT of commercial production and 1,800 MT of non-commercial.
Better Pollination, Not More Land, Fuels the Comeback
Yamagata Prefecture drives the recovery, accounting for about 74% of Japan's cherry production.
Yamagata's own survey puts this year's output between 10,200 and 11,100 MT, a sharp rise from last year's 8,310 MT. The gain follows expanded use of honeybees, hand pollination, and flowering branches to improve fruit set.
Japan's national harvested area continues to shrink regardless. FAS/Tokyo forecasts 3,810 hectares for MY2026/27, down 3.5% from 3,950 ha the prior year.
The causes are structural: aging growers, thin succession planning, and costly rain-protection upkeep are steadily forcing smaller orchards out of business.
The crop faces its own constraints. A frost on April 9 hit several Yamagata orchards in one of the region's major growing areas.
Twin fruiting also ran above normal for the late-maturing beni shuho variety, cutting the packout for premium grades.
Cherry Imports Forecast to Fall 15.6% on Smaller U.S. Crop
FAS/Tokyo forecasts MY2026/27 cherry imports at 4,200 MT, down 15.6% from 4,976 MT the prior year. Two supply factors explain why.
A bigger domestic harvest lessens Japan's reliance on imported cherries compared with the last two years.
USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service puts the 2026 U.S. sweet cherry harvest at 310,500 tons, roughly 17% smaller than last year's.
Capital Press independently reported the same figure. Washington's crop is forecast at 200,000 tons, down 23.4% from 2025.
Oregon's crop is forecast at 38,000 tons, down 23.5%. California's harvest is expected to climb 24.3% to 63,000 tons. This gain probably won't fully offset the shortfall from a smaller Pacific Northwest crop later in the import season.
The United States supplied 89% of Japan's cherry imports in MY2025/26, and imported fruit is typically marketed in Japan as American cherries.
Under the U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement, the tariff on U.S. fresh sweet cherries entering Japan has been removed. FAS/Tokyo reports no major tariff or market-access changes on the horizon for U.S. cherries this marketing year.
Domestic Consumption Set to Climb 12.5%
Per FAS/Tokyo, MY2026/27 domestic cherry consumption is forecast at 18,197 MT. It's up 12.5% from 16,174 MT the prior year. The gain in domestic supply outweighs the smaller import volume.
The increase is supply-led. It is not a sign of broader demand growth. Younger consumers show less interest in Japan's summer cherry-gifting tradition, per the report.
The report also cites high retail prices as a continuing constraint on sales volumes.
