The tighter US stocks come as global wheat supplies barely moved, with production gains in Russia and Ukraine offsetting the US and Canadian declines.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its forecast for 2026/27 U.S. wheat production to 1,536 million bushels in the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released July 10.
The estimate is down 7 million bushels from June and marks the smallest U.S. wheat crop since the 1970/71 marketing year.
Key Facts:
- USDA's July WASDE cuts 2026/27 U.S. wheat production to 1,536 million bushels, down 7 million bushels from June and the smallest U.S. crop since 1970/71.
- Projected 2026/27 U.S. wheat ending stocks fall to 722 million bushels, down 22 million bushels from June and 22% below the 920 million bushels estimated for 2025/26.
- Global 2026/27 wheat production held nearly flat at 819.97 million metric tons, as gains for Russia and Ukraine offset declines for the United States and Canada.
Winter Wheat Drives the Production Cut
USDA lowered its winter wheat production estimate by 39 million bushels to 990 million, with the reduction concentrated in Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter varieties. The agency raised its all-wheat yield estimate to 47.9 bushels per acre, up 0.9 bushels from June, but the smaller harvested winter wheat crop outweighed the higher yield.
US Wheat Ending Stocks Fall 22%
With production down and exports and domestic use held steady from June, USDA cut its projection for 2026/27 ending stocks to 722 million bushels, down 22 million bushels from last month and 22% below the 920 million bushels estimated for 2025/26.
The projected season-average farm price held at $6.00 per bushel, up from last year's final price of $5.06 per bushel.
U.S. wheat ending stocks are projected at 722 million bushels for 2026/27, down from 920 million estimated for 2025/26 and well below the 855 million bushels on the books in 2024/25. The July estimate marks a second consecutive monthly cut, down from 744 million bushels projected just one month earlier in June.
Global Wheat Supply Holds Nearly Steady
Global wheat production for 2026/27 was projected at 819.97 million metric tons, down 0.09 million tons from June, as production gains for Russia and Ukraine offset lower estimates for the United States and Canada.
Global ending stocks were lowered 2.6 million tons to 272.8 million, with the reduction concentrated in the United States, India, Argentina, and Canada, according to USDA.
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