A projected drop of 9 million tonnes would pull global rice output down to 536.4 million tonnes in 2026-27, according to a report from ANI. The wire service cited S&P Global projections shared by the Indian Rice Exporters' Federation (IREF), released ahead of the Bharat International Rice Conference (BIRC) 2026.
It cited a potentially strong El Niño, rising input costs, and geopolitical tensions as risks to crops in major producing regions.
Key Facts
- A 9-million-tonne drop is projected to pull global rice output to 536.4 million tonnes in 2026-27.
- Up nearly 4 million tonnes, global rice imports are forecast to reach 59.7 million tonnes in 2026-27.
- The global rice stock-to-use ratio is projected to fall to 36%, still comfortable by historical standards.
Weather-related uncertainty is now weighing on major producing, exporting, and importing countries alike. IREF pointed to a mix of pressures across those markets: disrupted sowing and growing seasons, shifting planted area, tighter water supplies, and climbing production costs.
- India
- Pakistan
- Thailand
- Vietnam
- Indonesia
- China
- Myanmar
- Philippines
Global rice production is projected to drop from 545.4 million tonnes in 2025-26 to 536.4 million tonnes in 2026-27. The projected decline of 9 million tonnes is tied to El Niño and rising input costs.
IREF described the combination as a new source of risk for global rice markets. Fuel, fertiliser, and freight costs, tied to the ongoing Middle East conflict, are adding to the strain.
El Niño Risk Timeline for 2026-27 Rice Crops
The forecast draws on data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Its Climate Prediction Center put the odds of El Niño persisting into early 2027 at 97%, in a forecast dated July 2026.
The same forecast gave an 81% chance of the event turning very strong between October and December 2026.
Growers across the affected regions face a wide window of risk. With El Niño potentially active through April 2027, key stretches of the planting and crop-development calendar fall inside that window.
Rising input costs could also push some farmers to scale back or delay planting, particularly across Asia.
S&P Global Energy has separately flagged El Niño as a broader 2026-27 risk to wheat, corn, soybean, and palm oil output outside the rice market.
Rice Trade and Stock-to-Use Outlook for 2026-27
Exports aren't expected to take the same hit. Ample carryover stock from 2025-26 should keep shipments close to current levels even as output falls.
Demand is moving the other way. Countries are expected to buy nearly 4 million more tonnes on the import market, lifting global imports to 59.7 million tonnes. Buyers are looking to lock in supply ahead of any harvest shortfalls.
The extra buying pulls the global stock-to-use ratio down to a projected 36%. IREF called the level comfortable by historical standards but said it would need closer tracking as the season develops.
Exporters are already seeing it show up in price. Weather risk and a tighter supply-demand balance are pushing rice prices higher across major exporting countries.
The federation says S&P Global Energy will unveil a fuller picture of the rice market at BIRC 2026, covering production, consumption, trade, stocks, and prices. The presentation is also expected to identify which countries carry the most supply risk and where global rice-trade patterns could shift next.
