The index sits 15.1% below its March 2022 peak, but FAO's chief economist expects the pressure to reach consumer food prices in import-dependent countries if it holds.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reported on October 2 that its Food Price Index averaged 136.0 points in September.
September's reading is 2.0 points (1.5%) above August's revised 134.0 and the highest since November 2022, per Reuters.
Key Facts
- Up 1.5% from August, the FAO Food Price Index reached 136.0 points in September.
- Black Sea logistics constraints helped lift wheat 6.3% on the month to its highest since August 2023.
- Sugar rose 6.1% from August, its third straight monthly increase.
FAO's cereal index averaged 122.8 points in September, up 5.1% from August and 17.2% above a year earlier. Wheat prices rose 6.3% on the month to their highest since August 2023, and FAO tied the move largely to logistical constraints in the Black Sea region. Importers shifted toward alternative origins as a result.
Dry weather in parts of North America ahead of winter wheat planting also contributed. Daily quotations eased toward month-end.
Why maize and feed grain prices rose in September
Maize prices rose 5.6% from August to their highest level in more than three years. Lower-than-anticipated yields in the United States and reduced export availability in Brazil tightened the supply outlook, and Black Sea trade disruption cut maize export availability further.
Uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz kept fuel, fertilizer, and freight cost concerns elevated. FAO reported the uncertainty added support to commodity prices, particularly for biofuel feedstocks such as maize.
Sorghum prices rose 13.7% from August and barley 3.9%, in line with the broader feed grain market. FAO also cited expectations of larger Chinese sorghum purchases after trade discussions between China and the United States. Rice prices rose 1.4% from August.
Indica quotations climbed on weather concerns and seasonally tighter supplies.
How sugar, vegetable oil, meat, and dairy prices moved
The FAO Sugar Price Index averaged 114.0 points in September, up 6.1% from August and 14.7% from a year earlier. It was the third consecutive monthly increase.
FAO attributed the gain to prospects of tighter global sugar supplies in 2026/27. A decline in planted area and adverse growing-season weather are expected to shrink the EU sugarbeet crop. Thailand is forecast to produce less sugar, and below-normal rainfall with strengthening El Niño conditions raised concerns over India's crop. Heavy rain also slowed the harvest in Brazil's Centre-South growing region.
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 198.6 points, up 0.9% from August and 18.3% above a year earlier. Palm oil prices rose for a fourth consecutive month on strong global import demand and concerns that dry weather could hurt production prospects in Southeast Asia. Sunflower oil prices fell for a third straight month on expectations of ample Black Sea supplies. Logistical disruptions and constrained export capacity limited that decline.
Meat prices fell 1.1% from August to an FAO index of 127.9 points, in line with a year earlier. Poultry quotations dropped on ample Brazilian export supplies and weaker EU import demand after antimicrobial-related import rules took effect on September 3. Pig meat prices also declined on abundant supplies in major exporting countries.
The FAO Dairy Price Index slipped 0.1% from August to 119.1 points, still 19.1% below a year earlier.
FAO's cereal trade and production forecasts for 2026/27
FAO's Cereal Supply and Demand Brief cut the 2026/27 trade forecast by 3.5 million tonnes (0.7%) from September to 505.8 million tonnes. The new total is 18.3 million tonnes (3.5%) below the previous season.
Lower expectations for wheat and maize exports drove the cut to global trade, largely because Black Sea shipping routes are constrained and alternative transport capacity is insufficient. Barley trade was revised up. Higher exportable supplies in Australia lifted the forecast, with much of the extra volume expected to ship to China.
In wheat, Kazakhstan's higher export expectations are more than offset by lower projected shipments from Russia and Ukraine.
Global cereal production for 2026 is forecast at 2,979 million tonnes, broadly unchanged from September and 2.1% below last year's all-time high.
It would still rank as the second-largest harvest on record.
FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero described a "persistent and increasingly broad-based build up in global commodity prices," Reuters reported.
He said the pressure will soon reach consumer food prices if it continues, especially in countries that rely on imported food and energy.
