Growers contracted much of the crop at prices 15% to 25% below last year's, and now face yields 7% to 21% under the five-year average.
The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) estimates heat and drought will cut this year's potato crop by about 3.1 million tonnes across four northwest European producers. The analysis, published Sept. 15, covers Germany, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands. It compares 2026 yield estimates with each country's five-year average.
Key Facts
- Estimated 2026 potato yields trail five-year averages by 21% (Belgium), 13% (France), 10% (Germany), and 7% (the Netherlands).
- The 3.1 million tonne weather loss is worth €405 million to €622 million at pre-drought contract prices.
- After a record 27.3 million tonne four-country crop in 2025, smaller plantings removed 3.6 million more tonnes.
Adding Great Britain lifts the estimate to more than 3.5 million tonnes, valued at €498 million to €818 million across all five countries. ECIU reports the British loss of 0.44 million tonnes separately, at lower confidence and valued at current prices. World Potato Markets modeled the yield at 2018 levels, 11% below the 2021 to 2025 average. Britain's Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board stopped publishing yield estimates in 2021.
How much each country loses to heat and drought
Germany carries the largest loss at 1.13 million tonnes, on a yield 10% below its five-year average. France loses 0.99 million tonnes on a yield 13% below average, the lowest in more than 30 years apart from 2022. Belgium loses 0.79 million tonnes on a yield 21% below average, the steepest gap of the four. The Netherlands loses 0.21 million tonnes on a yield 7% below average.
Belgium is the world's largest exporter of frozen fries, ECIU said. Size is a second problem there. Fontane, the main frying variety, yielded 32 tonnes a hectare at the end of August (30% below last year). Only half the crop cleared the 50mm size processors want.
Smaller plantings cut a further 3.6 million tonnes
The weather struck a crop that growers had already shrunk. A record 27.3 million-tonne four-country harvest in 2025 collapsed prices, and by April the Belgian spot quotation had fallen to €0 a tonne.
Planting fell by 10% to 17% across the four countries, led by Belgium (17%) and the Netherlands (15%). ECIU calculates that the smaller area removed another 3.6 million tonnes at five-year average yields. The 3.1 million tonne figure excludes it.
DCA Market Intelligence puts the four countries' combined 2026 output at about 20.8 million tonnes, Potato News Today reported. The figure is almost a quarter below last season.
How contract prices affect growers and processors
Much of the 2026 crop was contracted months before harvest. DCA analyst John Ramaker said early-season contract prices sit about 25% below last year's, while prices for later deliveries were fixed 15% to 17% lower. He suggested that higher prices on the small volume still traded on the open market do not offset the lost yield.
ECIU reported that Belgian free-market potatoes have since reached €200 or more a tonne. Per ECIU, the French growers' union UNPT has warned that growers may not be able to deliver the tonnages they contracted.
