India's edible oil imports are set to climb to an average of 1.5 million tons a month between July and October. Industry officials told Reuters this week that slowing domestic oilseed crushing is shrinking local supplies just as festival-season demand peaks.
Key Facts
- Up from 1.3 million tons a month, India's imports are set to average 1.5 million tons through October.
- Full-year imports are projected to rise to 16.3 million tons.
- July palm oil imports may jump 54% to a five-month high of 750,000 tons.
Refiners aren't waiting for supplies to run out. They're placing heavy orders for palm oil and soyoil now, building inventories ahead of the festive season, Sandeep Bajoria, chief executive of Sunvin Group, told Reuters.
The goal is to stock up before a series of festivals between August and November, when Indian demand for cooking oil peaks each year.
India's Oilseed Crushing Slows As Supplies Run Low
India crushes its own soybean and rapeseed to cover part of domestic edible oil demand.
But "supplies from last year's crop are nearly exhausted," said B.V. Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA). With last season's stock nearly gone, he added, monthly imports have little choice but to keep climbing into the fall just to cover ordinary demand.
A rise from 1.3 million to 1.5 million tons a month is a jump of about 15%. In practical terms, that's how much more edible oil is set to move through Indian ports each month during the stretch, compared with the prior eight months.
India already covers close to two-thirds of its edible oil demand through imports. Over the past two decades, that dependence has widened as domestic oilseed production has lagged rising consumption.
Mehta put full-year imports for the 2025/26 marketing year, which runs through October, at 16.3 million tons, up from 16 million tons a year earlier.
Indonesia, Malaysia And Brazil Feel The Import Squeeze
The extra buying is expected to eat into stockpiles across Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina and Brazil, the countries that supply most of India's palm oil and soyoil. It should also lend support to Malaysian futures prices for both commodities.
Sourcing patterns are shifting too. Indonesia and Malaysia remain India's main palm oil suppliers, with Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine covering most of its soyoil and sunflower oil needs.
Traders are now also picking up palm oil cargoes from South America and Africa, alongside their usual sources. Some are pulling soyoil from as far afield as China and Turkey, a New Delhi-based trader told Reuters.
India's palm oil imports in July alone are estimated to jump as much as 54% from June, to a five-month high of 750,000 tons. Rajesh Patel, managing partner at trader GGN Research, made the estimate.
India's Edible Oil Import Bill Set To Climb 9%
The surge comes at a cost. India's edible oil import bill is projected to rise 9% this year, to a record 1.75 lakh crore rupees, or about $18.1 billion at current exchange rates. Sanjeev Asthana, president of the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, put last year's bill at 1.61 lakh crore rupees in a letter to members, according to PTI.
The bill for those first eight months came to 1.19 lakh crore rupees, about 20% above the 99,000 crore rupees spent in the same stretch last year.
Rising bills reflect more than just higher volumes. A weaker rupee has made imports costlier, Asthana wrote. Indonesia's expanding biodiesel program is also diverting palm oil away from food use, tightening global supplies.
Freight and insurance costs remain elevated too. The result, in Asthana's words, is that "India may be compelled to import more, and pay considerably more for every tonne."
Domestic production isn't picking up the slack in the near term either. Kharif oilseed sowing stood at 147 lakh hectares as of July 17, down from 155.7 lakh hectares a year earlier, SEA said. The group noted, though, that acreage has historically caught up once monsoon rains improve.
