The EU's own research service puts $16 billion in US exports at risk, with citrus and soybean imports facing the sharpest hit under a worst-case scenario.
The European Commission's Joint Research Centre says EU agricultural imports could fall by as much as 41% from current levels under a new pesticide policy. The JRC published the study August 11, 2026. It models what happens if the EU lowers residue limits on the most hazardous banned pesticides to the detection floor for imported food and feed.
Key Facts
- Down as much as 41% from current volumes, EU imports face the study's worst-case scenario.
- Citrus imports would fall 92%, and soybean imports 90%, the two sharpest drops modeled.
- USDA pegs US exposure at $16 billion, roughly 30% of the affected EU import categories.
The study responds to a European Commission pledge in its Vision for Agriculture and Food to keep pesticides banned in the EU from re-entering through imports.
The JRC tested 18 active substances across 235 commodities and 86 exporting countries. It then modeled three scenarios in an economic model called CAPRI, tracking shifts in trade, EU production, and consumer prices under each.
Three Scenarios Bracket the Trade Impact
Under the JRC's upper-bound scenario, exporters make no changes to current practices. EU imports of the affected commodities then fall 41% in volume. Citrus imports fall hardest at 92%, with soybeans close behind at 90%.
Two other scenarios assume exporters adjust. The intermediate scenario assumes some producers adapt based on likely profitability. Under it, imports fall 8%. The lower-bound scenario assumes fewer producers adapt, but adaptation costs less. Under it, imports fall just 0.4%.
The JRC frames the three scenarios as a bracket rather than a forecast. The study's authors note that adaptation tends to increase over time. Costs also fall as producers get more time to adjust, meaning the scenarios could double as a rough timeline rather than three separate futures.
EU Crop Production Rises as Imports Fall
EU crop production expands in every scenario as domestic farmers fill the gap left by falling imports. Under the no-adaptation scenario, EU crop output rises 1.1% overall. Farmland use expands by 1.9 million hectares in the same scenario. Citrus production climbs 47%, rapeseed 41%, and soybeans 29%.
Livestock tells a different story. Higher feed costs push down livestock output too. Oilseed cake prices rise 87% in the no-adaptation scenario, cutting pork production 5.8% and poultry 5.4%. That effect mostly disappears under the intermediate and lower-bound scenarios, where feed-cost pressure eases along with the rest of the trade shock.
The Study's Limits and What Comes Next
The JRC's own authors caution that this study does not meet the bar of a full impact assessment under the EU's Better Regulation Guidelines. It has not gone through public consultation. It also does not address the environmental or social effects of the EU's pesticide bans, and it builds in no transition period for exporters to adjust.
USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service estimates $16 billion in US agricultural exports to the EU could be affected. This figure equals roughly 30% of total EU agricultural imports in the exposed categories.
The regulatory proposal that prompted the study is part of a broader Food and Feed Omnibus package. The European Commission's food safety office confirms the proposal remains under debate in the European Parliament and the Council. It would need its own dedicated impact assessment before taking effect.
