Chicago wheat futures rose 22-1/4 cents to $6.75-1/2 a bushel on Friday, Aug. 14. The move came after Russia rejected a proposed Black Sea ceasefire and Ukraine struck a Russian Baltic port.
Both developments revived concern about further disruption to Black Sea grain exports.
Key Facts
- Chicago wheat rose 22-1/4 cents to $6.75-1/2 a bushel Friday, a 35-cent weekly gain.
- Russia's rejection of a proposed Black Sea ceasefire drove most of Friday's rally.
- Down 53% from a prior 17.6 million tonnes, Ukraine's wheat export forecast now stands at 8.3 million tonnes.
The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade was trading near a three-week high by Friday afternoon, per Investing.com.
Corn and soybeans caught spillover support from wheat and firmer oil prices. Corn rose 8-1/2 cents to $4.80-1/2 a bushel, and soybeans rose 4-1/4 cents to $11.86-1/2 a bushel. Rain forecasts for the U.S. Midwest capped gains in both. The gains held through the close.
Russia Rejects Ceasefire, Ukraine Strikes Russian Port
Russia dismissed the idea of a Black Sea ceasefire on Friday. Ukraine had proposed a mutual halt to attacks on civilian targets in the region a day earlier.
Jack Scoville, vice president at Price Futures Group, said the collapsed peace talks were behind most of the move. He put the value of that news at "20 cents higher."
Ukraine's General Staff, per the Kyiv Independent, said its forces struck a Novatek gas condensate processing complex at Russia's Ust-Luga port overnight, damaging two processing plants and sparking a fire.
No damage to grain infrastructure at the site was reported. The strike still raised concern about further disruption to Russian export routes. Black Sea flows were already reduced this week by an earlier attack on grain terminals at the port of Novorossiysk.
Ukraine's Wheat Export Forecast Already Cut in Half
Ukraine's own export capacity was already shrinking before Friday's rally. The country's Agriculture Ministry cut its 2026/27 wheat export forecast 53% to 8.3 million tonnes from a prior 17.6 million tonnes, Bloomberg reported this month.
Russian strikes on the port of Odesa, which normally handles roughly 90% of Ukraine's grain exports, have cut off shipping capacity that alternative routes can't fully replace. Ukraine's total agricultural export forecast fell 54% over the same stretch, to 29.6 million tonnes from 64.4 million tonnes.
USDA Raised Russia's Wheat Export Forecast in July
Russia's own export outlook has moved the opposite direction. USDA raised its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2026/27 season to 47.5 million tonnes.
It's up from 47 million tonnes in June, per the agency's July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. The agency also lifted its estimate for Russian wheat production to 88.5 million tonnes.
Russia remains the top global supplier. USDA data show Russia as the world's largest wheat exporter, followed by the European Union, Canada, Australia, and the United States. Russia and Ukraine together are expected to supply nearly 30% of world wheat exports this season, per Trading Economics.
