Cane and beet sugar deliveries in the US rose 0.6% in the first half of the 2025/26 marketing year. High-fructose corn syrup deliveries fell 3.5% in the same span, according to a CoBank Knowledge Exchange report published July 30 and first reported by Reuters.
Key Facts
- HFCS deliveries fell by 3.5%.
- Cane and beet sugar deliveries rose 0.6% in the first half of 2025/26.
- Wholesale grocers and food distributors accounted for the strongest sugar delivery gains.
The CoBank report frames the shift as consumers trading one sweetener for another rather than cutting sweetened foods altogether, even as three out of four Americans say they want less sugar.
The figure comes from a 2025 International Food Information Council survey. CoBank food and beverage economist Billy Roberts said the data points to substitution, not reduction.
Manufacturers are reformulating products toward cane and beet sugar because it reads as more natural on the label. Shoppers are not eating less sweet food. They are eating sweet food with a different ingredient list.
Why Sugar Demand Is Rising While HFCS Falls
USDA delivery data for the current marketing year show gains concentrated among wholesale grocers and food distributors, the CoBank report found. Beverage manufacturers, bakery and cereal producers, and confectionery companies also added to sugar deliveries through April, the most recent month in the data.
Declines showed up elsewhere, not enough to offset the gains:
- Government agencies
- Dairy processors
- Food Service operators
- Frozen food manufacturers
The Make America Healthy Again movement urges Americans to cut added sugars and artificial sweeteners. It has not measurably reduced overall consumption. Roberts attributed it to greater awareness of ingredient labels, not lower demand.
Per Roberts, the same shoppers who avoid sugar are often just as wary of artificial substitutes. This limits how much ground natural sweeteners can gain from anti-sugar sentiment alone.
"That distinction matters for the sweetener industry," Roberts added.
Cane and beet sugar deliveries grew slightly faster than the US population itself in the first half of the marketing year. HFCS deliveries moved the opposite way, and by a wider margin: the 3.5% decline is nearly six times the size of the 0.6% sugar gain. CoBank's figures come from USDA delivery records through April.
Manufacturers Bet on Natural Labels to Keep Sales Growing
Manufacturers are reformulating products to keep sales growing while responding to consumer preferences on labels, Roberts suggested. Carbonated soft drinks face broader volume pressure.
The category has kept generating sales growth through portion-size changes and premium offerings, per Roberts. The US stevia market is growing quickly as manufacturers add it to dairy products, baked goods, and other items beyond traditional beverage use, per CoBank.
Alternative sweeteners are gaining some traction. But natural sweeteners appear to have the stronger long-term momentum, Roberts noted.
Long-Term Risk: GLP-1 Drugs and Smaller Grocery Baskets
CoBank frames GLP-1 weight-loss drugs as the bigger long-term threat to sweetener demand, not sugar aversion itself. Roberts said the drugs reduce overall consumption. Sugar remains embedded across many food and beverage categories, he added.
J.P. Morgan estimates GLP-1 use could cut annual US food and beverage spending by $30 billion by 2030 and $55 billion by 2034.
Grocery basket sizes could shrink by as much as 31% among active users of the drugs, according to some projections cited in the report.
CoBank reported the effect could accelerate after 2031, when key semaglutide patents expire in the US. Generic competition would likely lower treatment costs and widen access to the drugs, the report found.
