With just days left in the 2025/26 marketing year, corn shipments are on pace to hit USDA's record forecast while soybean sales keep losing ground to reduced Chinese demand.
Corn and soybeans moved in opposite directions in the US export data for the week ended August 27. Corn export inspections rose to 1.5 million tons, up 13.1% on the week. The gain also put volumes 6.1% above the same week in 2025, according to USDA Federal Grain Inspection Service data.
Soybean inspections went the other way, dropping to 250,801 tons. The total was down 49% from the same week last year and 41.7% below the previous week.
Key Facts
- Up 25.1% from a year ago, corn export inspections reached 83.8 million tons for the 2025/26 season.
- Soybean export inspections fell 18.2% below last season's pace to 40.7 million tons.
- Mexico bought the most US corn last week, at 510.5 thousand tons.
This week falls in the final stretch of the 2025/26 marketing year, which runs from September 2025 through August 2026. Corn and soybeans are heading opposite ways.
Corn Export Pace Nears USDA's Record Forecast
USDA raised its 2025/26 corn export forecast this month to 3.4 billion bushels, or 86.4 million metric tons. That figure was already a record before this month's increase, according to the agency's Economic Research Service.
Corn's marketing-year inspections through August 27 reached 83.8 million tons, about 97% of that full-season target, with days left before the year closes.
USDA also pointed to tighter export capacity out of Ukraine. Attacks on port terminals near Odesa in late July damaged loading facilities and vessels, cutting into how much grain the country can ship by sea.
Mexico bought the most US corn last week, taking 510.5 thousand tons. South Korea followed at 264.5 thousand tons. Japan bought 173.1 thousand tons, according to the USDA report. The same three countries have topped the buyer list through much of the season.
Soybean Exports Remain Well Below Last Year's Pace
Soybean export inspections have lagged all season on reduced demand from China, the crop's largest single buyer.
Total soybean export commitments for the 2025/26 marketing year were down 18.5% year over year as of mid-July. China's bookings were down 45% over that stretch, S&P Global Platts reported.
Exporters have leaned on other buyers to offset the shortfall. Japan lifted its 2025/26 soybean commitments 10.2% from a year ago after committing to $8 billion in US farm purchases. Egypt's bookings climbed 41.6% on stronger feed demand, per S&P Global Platts.
Nearly 150.6 thousand tons of last week's soybean shipments, well over half the total, moved out through Mississippi River ports. Algeria took the most among individual buyers, at 43.3 thousand tons. Egypt and Italy followed closely, each right around 42 thousand tons.
Whether China's purchases pick up before the marketing year ends remains the big unknown for soybean traders. "It is largely impossible to meet China's shipments by selling to other destinations," a New Orleans-based trader told S&P Global Platts.
