Canada projects a barley crop flat on last year at 9.7 million tonnes, but far less of it will clear malting selection.
The Canadian Malting Barley Technical Centre (CMBTC) forecasts under 2 million tonnes of selectable malting barley in Canada for 2026-27, down from 3 million tonnes last year. Glacier FarmMedia reported that rain over the final two weeks of August and into early September cost Canada much of its good-quality malting barley.
Key Facts
- Against 3 million tonnes last year, Canada’s selectable malting barley is forecast to fall below 2 million.
- Barley production is projected to edge down 0.1% to 9.7 million tonnes as yields fall 8.2%.
- A smaller share of the crop clears malting selection, so more barley than normal moves into feed.
Peter Watts, the CMBTC’s managing director, expects “a big drop in the availability of malting barley this year.” Watts said international customers already know supply is tight, and that awareness is lifting prices.
What caused the drop in Canadian malting barley supply
Statistics Canada projects Canadian barley output at 9.7 million tonnes in 2026, down 0.1% from 2025. Yields are projected to fall 8.2% to 72.9 bushels per acre. Harvested area is expected to rise 8.8% to 6.1 million acres.
Alberta’s crop is projected to fall 3.8% to 5.1 million tonnes, on yields down 11.3% to 71.6 bushels per acre. Saskatchewan’s output is set to rise 9.6% to 3.9 million tonnes on a 13.1% increase in harvested area.
How tighter malting supply affects barley buyers
Less of the crop will make the malting grade. Canada will therefore have a larger feed barley supply than in a typical year, Glacier FarmMedia reported.
Grain that sprouts before harvest has to be processed quickly. Domestic maltsters can manage that. International buyers have a harder time, Glacier FarmMedia reported.
What the 2026 barley production estimate covers
The 9.7 million tonne projection comes from satellite imagery and agroclimatic data. The data runs through August 31. Glacier FarmMedia described rain that continued into early September, so part of the rain period falls after that cutoff. The CMBTC and the Canadian Grain Commission have been measuring pre-harvest sprouting and germination rates, per Glacier FarmMedia.
Statistics Canada will release final survey-based production estimates on December 4.
