Harvested area and yield each fell about 5% from 2025/26, so wheat sits 10% below that year’s 40.56 mmt.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) put 2026/27 Canada wheat production at 36.5 million metric tons (mmt) on October 9, 9% above the 5-year average. The estimate is up 1% from September, when USDA had the crop at 36.0 mmt.
Key Facts
- Canada wheat production is estimated at 36.5 mmt, 10% below last year's record.
- At 3.61 tons per hectare, Canada's wheat yield is 12% above the 5-year average.
- Harvested area fell 5% from last year to 10.1 million hectares.
USDA reported favorable yields across most of the Prairies. Eastern Canada received more precipitation than last year. Reuters reported that Statistics Canada's (StatCan) September 16 model had wheat production down 11% from 2025.
Canada Wheat Yield Is 12% Above Its 5-Year Average at 3.61 Tons per Hectare
Yield is estimated at 3.61 tons per hectare, up 1% from September. It runs 12% above the 5-year average. Last year's yield was 3.82 tons per hectare, so 2026/27 is down 5%.
Harvested area is estimated at 10.1 million hectares (mha), unchanged from September. Last year's area was 10.62 mha, so this year's is 5% smaller. Area also sits 2% under the 5-year average.
Canada Wheat Production Is 10% Below Last Year's Record of 40.56 Million Metric Tons
USDA's 2026/27 estimate is 10% below last year's record crop of 40.56 mmt. Reuters reported StatCan's spring wheat estimate at 26.5 mmt, down more than 3 mmt from 2025. StatCan put durum at 6.4 mmt, down more than 0.8 mmt. The USDA report ties StatCan's decline to farmers planting less wheat. Yields fell below last year's record. They stayed above the 5-year average.
Saskatchewan Durum Harvest Is 79% Complete and Spring Wheat 65%
Spring wheat accounts for about 96% of the crop and is grown mostly in the Prairie provinces. Winter wheat is grown mostly in Ontario and makes up about 4%. Its harvest finished earlier than last year.
Wet fields delayed the Prairie harvest earlier in the season. Provincial reporting at the end of September showed below-average harvest progress across the three Prairie provinces. Recent warm and dry weather had still allowed significant progress, per USDA.
As of September 28, Saskatchewan's durum harvest was 79% complete and its spring wheat harvest 65% complete.
