China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) ruled preliminarily on August 10 that pecans imported from the United States and Mexico were being dumped in the Chinese market. Importers had to start posting cash deposits the following day.
Key Facts
- From a starting deposit of 54.3%, the total duty on US pecans now reaches 86.3%.
- Mexican exporters' deposits range from 17.8% to 51.6%, depending on cooperation.
- US pecan shipments to China fell 87%, from 18,797 metric tons in 2024 to 2,504 in 2025.
The deposit rate for all US companies is set at 54.3%. None of them took part in the investigation. MOFCOM used the best information available, in line with Chinese law and World Trade Organization rules.
The new deposit stacks on top of an existing MFN tariff, a 15% Section 232 tariff, and a 10% reciprocal tariff. Combined, they push the total duty on US pecans to 86.3% per a GAIN report from USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (CH2026-0106).
A separate 30% Section 301 tariff is currently excluded and does not count toward that total. Importers also owe a 9% import VAT on top of the deposit, calculated on the customs value of the shipment.
MOFCOM's own injury findings show a fast-moving shift. The figures, published in the GAIN report, were also reported by the South China Morning Post. Over the injury investigation period, dumped import volume rose by a cumulative 104.56%.
Its share of the domestic market grew 9.69 percentage points, MOFCOM said. Import prices for the dumped product fell a cumulative 9.15% over the same period, staying below domestic prices throughout.
Mexican Companies Get Different Deposit Rates
Mexico's rates vary by company, unlike the flat US rate. Two sampled exporters, Negocio Agrícola San Enrique and Viñedos Alta, drew individual rates after cooperating directly with the investigation.
Three more cooperating companies share a common rate, and every other Mexican exporter defaults to the top rate. Rates for each company, including the required 9% import VAT, appear below:
- Negocio Agrícola San Enrique S.A. de C.V.: 23.0%
- Viñedos Alta, S.A.P.I. de C.V.: 17.8%
- Premium Pecanas, Viñas de la Costa, and Nueces Oko (three more cooperating companies): 22.2% each
- All other Mexican companies: 51.6%
- All US companies, none of which cooperated: 54.3%
US Pecan Exports to China Have Collapsed Since 2022
China's own trade data, published in the GAIN report, shows the collapse. The United States was China's second-largest pecan supplier in 2024, behind South Africa and just ahead of Mexico. US shipments totaled 4,740 metric tons in 2022 and rose to 18,797 metric tons by 2024. They then fell to 2,504 metric tons in 2025.
Through the first half of 2026, shipments totaled 1,381 metric tons, a 41.83% drop from the same period in 2025. Mexico's shipments followed a similar pattern, falling from 17,807 metric tons in 2024 to 5,090 metric tons in 2025. South Africa moved the opposite direction.
Its shipments to China rose from 32,746 metric tons in 2024 to 48,860 metric tons in 2025, making it China's largest pecan supplier by a wide margin.
Final Ruling Expected by September 2026
Interested parties can file written comments with MOFCOM through August 20, 10 days after the announcement. MOFCOM's original announcement calls for a final ruling before September 25, 2026, with a possible six-month extension.
The investigation began exactly a year earlier, on September 25, 2025, under Announcement No. 52 of 2025. The provisional deposits stay in effect until the final ruling replaces them.
