Cumulative shipments to the US are down 44% since January, even as the total export decline across all markets was less than half as steep.
Sweden shipped about half as much sawn softwood lumber to the United States in May as it did a year earlier. This is according to trade data reported by Pulp & Paper News, which cited figures compiled by Statistics Sweden and the Austrian trade title Timber-Online.
Key Facts
- Swedish sawn softwood exports fell 8% to about 5.5 million m³ in the first five months of 2026.
- Down about 44% over the same five months.
- US-bound volume dropped 52% in May alone even as the average price rose 24%.
The US decline has pulled Sweden's cumulative exports to that market down 44% for the first five months of 2026.
Total sawn softwood exports to all markets fell a milder 8% over the same period, the lowest five-month total since 2019. The average price of Swedish lumber sold in the US rose 24% in May even as shipments there fell, per Lesprom Analytics.
Sweden's US-bound lumber volume and price moved in opposite directions in May: shipments fell 52% from a year earlier, while the average price of that same lumber rose 24%.
US, Japan, and UK Deliveries Drive the Decline
Japan and the United Kingdom also bought less Swedish softwood over the first five months of 2026. Deliveries to Japan fell about 23% from the same period a year earlier.
The UK remained Sweden's largest single export market. Deliveries there totaled roughly 1.1 million m³, down about 6% and equal to about 20% of Sweden's total exports.
Central and Eastern European buyers moved the other way, increasing their purchases enough to offset part of the overall decline. Available reporting did not specify which countries in the region bought more or by how much.
Swedish Lumber to the US: Volume Falls, Price Rises in May
Lesprom Analytics tracks the trade on a monthly basis separately from the cumulative government data. Its figures show Sweden's total lumber exports fell 33% in May from a year earlier, a much steeper drop than the 8% cumulative figure recorded through May.
Shipments to the US fell even further, down 52% for the month. The average price of that US-bound lumber rose 24% over the same period.
SCA CEO Says Wood Market May Have Bottomed
SCA is Europe's largest private forest owner. It published half-year results on 22 July.
Its wood products segment posted an operating margin of 6% in the second quarter, down from 18% a year earlier. Sales in that segment fell 12% over the same period.
Chief executive Ulf Larsson told analysts on the earnings call that the broader market for solid wood products remained weak overall.
"I guess that we have reached the bottom now," he said.
Chief financial officer Andreas Ewertz said sawlog and pulpwood costs combined are expected to fall 3% to 5% in the third quarter. He added that costs should decline further in the fourth quarter.
